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Social policy advice to countries from the International Monetary Fund during the COVID-19 crisis: Continuity and change

Autor: Razavi, Shahra; Schwarzer, Helmut; Durán-Valverde, Fabio; Ortiz, Isabel; Dutt, Devika
Año: 2021
Resumen: This paper explores whether there has been a change in International Monetary Fund (IMF) policy advice and conditions in its loan programmes and Article IV surveillance by examining the 148 country reports for IMF programmes in 2020, in the context of significant shifts in its global macroeconomic policy framework during the COVID-19 pandemic. It documents the policy recommendations made in these reports and finds that the IMF has supported increased expenditure on health care and cash transfer programmes, often on a temporary basis, even when it meant higher fiscal deficit and public debt. However, it also finds that the IMF has supported fiscal consolidation and reduction of public debt even more frequently, in 129 of the 148 reports examined. This seems to corroborate the findings of a number of recent studies. Given the pronounced gaps in social protection coverage, comprehensiveness and adequacy across all countries, it is essential that the measures taken to cope with the emergency do not remain a mere stopgap response, but progressively lead to the establishment or strengthening of rights-based national social protection systems, including floors. To do so, countries can and should pursue diverse financing options that are equitable in order to mobilize the financial resources needed for social investments, including investments in social protection systems and quality public services.

Fuente: Organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT)
Clasificación: Seguridad Social y Sistemas de Pensiones
Tipo de Publicación: Documentos de Trabajo
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The Anatomy of Index Rebalancings: Evidence from Transaction Data

Autor: Escobar, Mariana; Pandolfi, Lorenzo; Pedraza, Alvaro; Williams, Tomas.
Año: 2021
Resumen: This paper exploits a novel dataset covering the universe of transactions in the Colombian Stock Exchange to analyze episodes of additions to and deletions from MSCI equity indexes. The analysis finds that additions and deletions have large price effects: the median cumulative abnormal return in absolute value is 5.5 percent. The paper shows that these price effects are due to large demand shocks by different classes of international investors—not only passive funds and ETFs, but also active mutual funds, pension funds and government funds—which are not absorbed by arbitrageurs. Consistent with recent asset pricing models with limits to arbitrage, stock demand curves are estimated to be very inelastic: the demand elasticity for the median stock in the sample is −0.34, implying that a 1 percent increase in the demand for the stock increases its price by 2.9 percent.

Fuente: Banco Mundial
Clasificación: Fondos de Inversión
Tipo de Publicación: Documentos de Trabajo
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Financing human-centred COVID-19 recovery and decisive climate action worldwide: International cooperation’s twenty-first century moment of truth

Autor: Samans, Richard
Año: 2021
Resumen: All nations have an interest in greatly accelerating implementation – including in low- and lower-middle-income countries – of the strategies that have been agreed internationally to address the universal threats posed by the pandemic and climate change, i.e., WHO’s ACT-A/COVAX initiative; the ILO Global Call to Action for a Human-Centred Recovery from the COVID-19 Crisis; and the 2030 Agenda, which includes the Paris climate agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. The most feasible way these resources can be mobilized at the required scale and speed is for the existing capital and capabilities of the international financial institutions (the IMF and multilateral development banks) to be deployed as imaginatively and expansively over the next several years as advanced countries have deployed their central banks and treasuries since the beginning of the pandemic. The paper outlines a set of specific initiatives to this end, including but not limited to a structured framework for the donation of recently issued Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), that would: • fully and promptly fund the WHO ACT-A/COVAX Initiative; • adequately resource debt relief and restructuring, social protection floors and job-rich sustainable infrastructure and industry in these developing countries; and • finance a global effort to avoid a lock-in of greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power generation, which represents the single largest and most time sensitive aspect of the climate action required to achieve the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

Fuente: Organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT)
Clasificación: Fondos de Inversión
Tipo de Publicación: Documentos de Trabajo
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Old age work and income security in middle income countries: comparing the cases

Autor: Henry, Carla, Golman, Matías
Año: 2021
Resumen: This paper considers the rapid demographic ageing trend experienced in many middle-income countries and examines how the dimensions of these demographic shifts can be combined with other dimensions related to employment, retirement and social protection in order to classify countries according to their level of preparedness to secure adequate income for their rapidly ageing population. This paper differs from other such studies as it deliberately incorporates employment measures and distributional aspects alongside economic and social protection measures in calculating a preparedness and vulnerability index. Patterns of work and income security up to and during old age were incorporated into the index using data from 35 middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, all of which will face ageing populations over the next 10 to 30 years. The index presented in this paper differs from other indices as it incorporates current employment dimensions relevant to the delivery of old-age income security in the future. Drawing from a wide array of country-specific indicators, this study seeks to identify configurations of descriptive variables that can approximate underlying relative differences between countries in terms of economic and social preparedness, distributional vulnerability and gender inequality. The results of the factor analysis suggest that, for social preparedness, the standard of living and strength of social protection in a country are two important underlying factors. For distributional vulnerability, the relative prevalence of low-quality employment and of poverty combined with inequality are the two dominant underlying factors which can be used to distinguish between countries. Finally, for gender inequality, the employment gender gap is the main factor, comprising gender differences in labour force participation and in youth preparedness for employment, both of which significantly influence life-long earnings and retirement income.

Fuente: Organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT)
Clasificación: Mercado Laboral
Tipo de Publicación: Documentos de Trabajo
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Investing in Jobs and Social Protection for Poverty Eradication and a Sustainable Recovery

Autor: Gabinete de la Secretaría General de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (EOSG)
Año: 2021
Resumen: The COVID-19 pandemic is the most serious global public health and socioeconomic crisis the world has faced in the past century, exacerbating pre-existing and systemic inequalities and threatening the long-term livelihoods and well-being of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people. Recovery trends between advanced and developing economies are deeply uneven, spurred by vast differences in access to vaccines, the fiscal capacity and ability of governments to respond, supply chain failures, a growing digital divide, the impacts of the growing complexity of conflict and displacement, and the threat of a looming debt crisis. This two-track recovery is now creating a great divergence, which, if not corrected, will undermine trust and solidarity and fuel conflict and forced migration, and make the world more vulnerable to future crises, including climate change.

Fuente: Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU)
Clasificación: Ahorro Previsional
Tipo de Publicación: Documentos de Trabajo
Idioma:

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