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Population Aging and Economic Growth

Autor: Bloom, David E.; Canning, David; Fink, Günther
Año: 2008
Resumen: Between 2000 and 2050, the share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in every country in the world. Although labor force participation rates are projected to decline from 2000 to 2040 in most countries, due mainly to changes in their age distributions, labor force- to-population ratios will actually increase in most countries. This is because low fertility will cause lower youth dependency that is more than enough to offset the skewing of adults toward the older ages at which labor force participation is lower. The increase in labor-force-to-population ratios will be further magnified by increases in age-specific rates of female labor force participation associated with fertility declines. These factors suggest that economic growth will continue apace, notwithstanding the phenomenon of population aging. For the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the declines projected to occur in both labor force participation and labor-force-to-population ratios suggest modest declines in the pace of economic growth. But even these effects can be mitigated by behavioral responses to population aging-in the form of higher savings for retirement, greater labor force participation, and increased immigration from labor-surplus to labor-deficit countries. Countries that can facilitate such changes may be able to limit the adverse consequences of population aging. When seen through the lens of several mitigating considerations, there is reason to think that population aging in developed countries may have less effect than some have predicted. In addition, policy responses related to retirement incentives, pension funding methods, investments in health care of the elderly, and immigration can further ameliorate the effect of population aging on economic growth.

Fuente: Banco Mundial
Clasificación: Demografía
Tipo de Publicación: Documentos de Trabajo
Idioma:

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Tax and Pension Reform in the Czech Republic—Implications for Growth and Debt Sustainability

Autor: Botman, Dennis P.; Tuladhar, Anita
Año: 2008
Resumen: The Czech Republic has embarked on an ambitious tax reform and expenditure package to bring the deficit sustainably below 3 percent, and intends to reduce the deficit to 1 percent of GDP by 2012. To address the long-term fiscal challenge due to population aging, pension reform proposals are also being considered. In this paper we assess the macroeconomic effects of these measures using the Global Fiscal Model. The tax reform package will achieve a more efficient tax system. If implemented successfully with the intended expenditure savings measures, debt is projected to improve markedly while output would expand. Fiscal sustainability will not be restored, however, even if further measures to bring the deficit to 1 percent of GDP by 2012. Instead, raising the retirement age and prefunding future aging costs would be needed to keep debt below 60 percent of GDP through 2050.

Fuente: Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI)
Clasificación: Seguridad Social y Sistemas de Pensiones
Tipo de Publicación: Documentos de Trabajo
Idioma:

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Japan: Selected Issues

Autor: Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI)
Año: 2008
Resumen: This Selected Issues paper discusses the impact of global financial turmoil on Japan. It describes how close integration in global financial markets has deepened and expanded the channels for spillovers. The paper discusses options for increasing the consumption tax to finance the public pension system. It explains that while parametric reforms have reduced fiscal pressures, the basic pension is becoming a less adequate safety net for the retired. The paper also attempts to explain the declining share of labor income.

Fuente: Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI)
Clasificación: Seguridad Social y Sistemas de Pensiones
Tipo de Publicación: Informes
Idioma:

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Structured Finance in Latin America : Channeling Pension Funds to Housing, Infrastructure, and Small Businesses

Autor: Cheikhrouhou, Hela; Gwinner, W. Britt; Pollner, John; Salinas, Emanuel; Sirtaine, Sophie; Vittas, Dimitri.
Año: 2007
Resumen: The report covers several types of structured finance with such capital market instruments as mortgage-backed securities, structured bond issues for infrastructure financing, securitization of small and medium enterprises (SME)-related assets, and securitization of loans to SMEs. The report also covers factoring and leasing, which can be important sources of finance for SMEs and can be pooled and packaged into marketable securities and sold to pension funds. The report does not cover other types of structured finance, such as exchange trade funds, structured notes with capital protection, or structured financing outside capital markets, such as bank syndications. Chapter 1 focuses on private pension fund investment management and the role of structured bonds. Chapter 2 focuses on the increasing use of structured finance for housing in Latin American countries. Chapter 3 deals with the less developed yet promising area of structured bonds for infrastructure financing. Chapter 4 focuses on the use of structured bonds for SME finance, still in the experimental stage. The report discusses the role of the government in supporting small and medium loan securitizations through partial guarantees (as in Spain) to share the risk of borrower default and through the development of an SME securitization conduit (as in Germany).

Fuente: Banco Mundial
Clasificación: Fondos de Inversión
Tipo de Publicación: Informes
Idioma:

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Hipótesis demográficas y económicas usadas en las valoraciones actuariales de los regímenes de seguridad social y de pensiones

Autor: Boulanger, François; Cossette, Charles; Ouellet, Gilbert
Año: 2007
Resumen: Quebec, como la mayor parte de los países industrializados, deberá hacer frente, en las próximas décadas, a un envejecimiento significativo de su población a causa de una disminución de la natalidad y de una mejora de la esperanza de vida. Dicha evolución tendrá consecuencias importantes en las características de la población activa y en los ingresos y los gastos futuros del régimen público de jubilación. Durante la elaboración del Análisis Actuarial del Régimen de Pensiones de Quebec al 31 de diciembre de 2006, los actuarios de la Administración de Pensiones de Quebec llevaron a cabo un estudio que comparaba las hipótesis y las proyecciones propias del régimen de Quebec con las de los regímenes de seguridad social de ocho países. Con este fin, la Administración de Pensiones realizó una encuesta que recibió el apoyo de la Asociación Internacional de la Seguridad Social. Los responsables1 de la evaluación actuarial de los regímenes de seguridad social de esos países (Estados Unidos, Finlandia, Francia, Italia, Japón, Reino Unido, Suecia y Suiza) respondieron a un cuestionario titulado: “Envejecimiento de la población y consecuencias en la población activa”. La comparación se basa en la información compilada. El presente informe contiene una síntesis de los datos obtenidos al término de la encuesta, así como un análisis comparativo de las proyecciones nacionales. Se divide en dos capítulos. El primero muestra la evolución futura del entorno demográfico de los países estudiados. El segundo presenta una comparación de las proyecciones de los distintos países desde el ángulo de la población activa, de la participación en el mercado laboral (particularmente entre las personas de 55 años y mayores) y de otras variables económicas.

Fuente: Asociación Internacional de la Seguridad Social (AISS)
Clasificación: Demografía
Tipo de Publicación: Informes
Idioma:

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